🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Tajikistan vs India
Jun 05, 03:00 PM
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Tajikistan Home Win
58%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
1-0
18.9%
2-0
13.7%
2-1
8.1%
Pre-match Outlook
Tajikistan enter this International Friendlies fixture with a measured advantage over India (58% confidence, SAFE tier) and a projected 1-0 result.
Goal volume is muted — λ 1.45 for Tajikistan, λ 0.59 for India, total 2.04; under 2.5 carries 67% weight.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 66% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Tajikistan vs India — Tajikistan Home Win: 58%. λ (Home): 1.45 · λ (Away): 0.59.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.