🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Tanzania vs Uganda
Jun 05, 12:00 PM
○ Normal PREDICTION
Tanzania Home Win
44%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
1-0
14.9%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
8.0%
Pre-match Outlook
Tanzania hold a slim edge over Uganda in this International Friendlies match — 44% confidence puts it in the Normal tier with a 1-0 projection.
Goal volume is muted — λ 1.22 for Tanzania, λ 0.88 for Uganda, total 2.10; under 2.5 carries 65% weight.
In this International Friendlies context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the narrow-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Tanzania vs Uganda — Tanzania Home Win: 44%. λ (Home): 1.22 · λ (Away): 0.88.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.