🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Togo vs Benin
Jun 09, 12:00 PM
○ Normal PREDICTION
Togo Home Win
42%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
1-0
13.1%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
8.3%
Pre-match Outlook
Togo hold a slim edge over Benin in this International Friendlies match — 42% confidence puts it in the Normal tier with a 1-0 projection.
Goal expectation is balanced — λ 1.26 for Togo, λ 1.00 for Benin, total 2.26; the over/under read is under 2.5 at 61%.
In this International Friendlies context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the narrow-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Togo vs Benin — Togo Home Win: 42%. λ (Home): 1.26 · λ (Away): 1.00.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.