🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Uganda vs Madagascar
Jun 08, 12:00 PM
○ Normal PREDICTION
Uganda Home Win
41%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.6%
1-0
6.6%
2-0
5.5%
Pre-match Outlook
Uganda hold a slim edge over Madagascar in this International Friendlies match — 41% confidence puts it in the Normal tier with a 2-1 projection.
Expected goals lean high — λ 1.68 for Uganda, λ 1.56 for Madagascar, summing to 3.24; over 2.5 sits at 63% probability.
In this International Friendlies context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the narrow-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Uganda vs Madagascar — Uganda Home Win: 41%. λ (Home): 1.68 · λ (Away): 1.56.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.