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🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International

USA vs Germany

Jun 06, 06:30 PM · Soldier Field

Normal PREDICTION

Germany Away Win

47%

Predicted score: 1-2

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

USA32%
Draw21%
Germany47%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)72%
Under 2.5 (0-2)28%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes71%
BTTS: No29%

Most Likely Scores

1-2

8.5%

1-3

5.8%

0-2

5.1%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

USA vs GermanyGermany Away Win: 47%. λ (Home): 1.66 · λ (Away): 2.05.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.