🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
USA vs Germany
Jun 06, 06:30 PM · Soldier Field
○ Normal PREDICTION
Germany Away Win
47%
Predicted score: 1-2
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
USA32%
Draw21%
Germany47%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)72%
Under 2.5 (0-2)28%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes71%
BTTS: No29%
Most Likely Scores
1-2
8.5%
1-3
5.8%
0-2
5.1%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
USA vs Germany — Germany Away Win: 47%. λ (Home): 1.66 · λ (Away): 2.05.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.