goalence

🇪🇸 La Liga · Regular Season - 38

Valencia vs Barcelona

May 23, 07:00 PM · Estadio de Mestalla

SAFE PREDICTION

Barcelona Away Win

65%

Predicted score: 0-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Valencia14%
Draw21%
Barcelona65%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)50%
Under 2.5 (0-2)50%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes45%
BTTS: No55%

Most Likely Scores

0-1

13.4%

0-2

12.8%

1-2

9.6%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Valencia vs BarcelonaBarcelona Away Win: 65%. λ (Home): 0.75 · λ (Away): 1.90.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.