🇪🇸 La Liga · Regular Season - 38
Valencia vs Barcelona
May 23, 07:00 PM · Estadio de Mestalla
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Barcelona Away Win
65%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Valencia14%
Draw21%
Barcelona65%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)50%
Under 2.5 (0-2)50%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes45%
BTTS: No55%
Most Likely Scores
0-1
13.4%
0-2
12.8%
1-2
9.6%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Valencia vs Barcelona — Barcelona Away Win: 65%. λ (Home): 0.75 · λ (Away): 1.90.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.