🇪🇸 La Liga · Regular Season - 38
Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid
May 24, 07:00 PM · Estadio de la Ceramica
○ Normal PREDICTION
Villarreal Home Win
40%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Villarreal40%
Draw22%
Atletico Madrid38%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)68%
Under 2.5 (0-2)32%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes68%
BTTS: No32%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.2%
1-0
5.4%
3-1
4.9%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid — Villarreal Home Win: 40%. λ (Home): 1.77 · λ (Away): 1.72.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.