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🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Final

Saint Etienne vs Nice

May 26, 06:45 PM · Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Normal PREDICTION

Nice Away Win

40%

Predicted score: 1-2

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Saint Etienne36%
Draw24%
Nice40%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)61%
Under 2.5 (0-2)39%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes63%
BTTS: No37%

Most Likely Scores

1-2

8.6%

0-1

7.0%

0-2

5.7%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Saint Etienne vs NiceNice Away Win: 40%. λ (Home): 1.52 · λ (Away): 1.63.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.