🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Final
Saint Etienne vs Nice
May 26, 06:45 PM · Stade Geoffroy-Guichard
○ Normal PREDICTION
Nice Away Win
40%
Predicted score: 1-2
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Saint Etienne36%
Draw24%
Nice40%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)61%
Under 2.5 (0-2)39%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes63%
BTTS: No37%
Most Likely Scores
1-2
8.6%
0-1
7.0%
0-2
5.7%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Saint Etienne vs Nice — Nice Away Win: 40%. λ (Home): 1.52 · λ (Away): 1.63.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.