goalence

🏴 Premier League · Regular Season - 38

Brighton vs Manchester United

May 24, 03:00 PM · Amex Stadium

Normal PREDICTION

Brighton Home Win

42%

Predicted score: 1-0

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Brighton42%
Draw26%
Manchester United31%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)48%
Under 2.5 (0-2)52%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes52%
BTTS: No48%

Most Likely Scores

1-0

10.7%

2-1

8.8%

2-0

7.5%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Brighton vs Manchester UnitedBrighton Home Win: 42%. λ (Home): 1.41 · λ (Away): 1.17.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.