🏴 Premier League · Regular Season - 38
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
May 24, 03:00 PM · Etihad Stadium
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Manchester City Home Win
64%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Manchester City64%
Draw19%
Aston Villa17%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)65%
Under 2.5 (0-2)35%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes59%
BTTS: No41%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.1%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Manchester City vs Aston Villa — Manchester City Home Win: 64%. λ (Home): 2.27 · λ (Away): 1.07.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.