goalence

🇮🇹 Serie A · Regular Season - 38

Parma vs Sassuolo

May 24, 01:00 PM · Stadio Ennio Tardini

Normal PREDICTION

Sassuolo Away Win

46%

Predicted score: 0-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Parma25%
Draw29%
Sassuolo46%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)35%
Under 2.5 (0-2)65%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes41%
BTTS: No59%

Most Likely Scores

0-1

15.3%

0-2

9.7%

1-2

8.2%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Parma vs SassuoloSassuolo Away Win: 46%. λ (Home): 0.84 · λ (Away): 1.27.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.