goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Algeria vs Austria

Jun 28, 02:00 AM · Arrowhead Stadium

Normal PREDICTION

Algeria Home Win

44%

Predicted score: 2-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Algeria44%
Draw23%
Austria33%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)65%
Under 2.5 (0-2)35%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes66%
BTTS: No34%

Most Likely Scores

2-1

8.8%

1-0

6.4%

2-0

5.7%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Algeria vs AustriaAlgeria Home Win: 44%. λ (Home): 1.80 · λ (Away): 1.54.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.