goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Argentina vs Algeria

Jun 17, 01:00 AM · Arrowhead Stadium

🔥 ELITE PREDICTION

Argentina Home Win

71%

Predicted score: 2-0

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Argentina71%
Draw18%
Algeria12%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)61%
Under 2.5 (0-2)39%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes50%
BTTS: No50%

Most Likely Scores

2-0

11.6%

1-0

10.1%

2-1

9.6%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Argentina vs AlgeriaArgentina Home Win: 71%. λ (Home): 2.31 · λ (Away): 0.82.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.