goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Australia vs Türkiye

Jun 14, 04:00 AM · BC Place

Normal PREDICTION

Australia Home Win

42%

Predicted score: 2-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Australia42%
Draw24%
Türkiye34%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)59%
Under 2.5 (0-2)41%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes61%
BTTS: No39%

Most Likely Scores

2-1

8.9%

1-0

7.5%

2-0

6.2%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Australia vs TürkiyeAustralia Home Win: 42%. λ (Home): 1.64 · λ (Away): 1.44.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.