goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Belgium vs Iran

Jun 21, 07:00 PM · SoFi Stadium

Normal PREDICTION

Belgium Home Win

55%

Predicted score: 2-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Belgium55%
Draw21%
Iran24%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)68%
Under 2.5 (0-2)32%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes66%
BTTS: No34%

Most Likely Scores

2-1

9.4%

2-0

6.8%

3-1

6.7%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Belgium vs IranBelgium Home Win: 55%. λ (Home): 2.14 · λ (Away): 1.38.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.