goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Brazil vs Morocco

Jun 13, 10:00 PM · MetLife Stadium

Normal PREDICTION

Brazil Home Win

47%

Predicted score: 1-0

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Brazil47%
Draw25%
Morocco29%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)54%
Under 2.5 (0-2)46%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes57%
BTTS: No43%

Most Likely Scores

1-0

9.4%

2-1

9.3%

2-0

7.6%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Brazil vs MoroccoBrazil Home Win: 47%. λ (Home): 1.62 · λ (Away): 1.23.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.