World Cup
Canada vs Qatar
Jun 18, 10:00 PM
Full Time
6 – 0
Canada vs Qatar
Our prediction: Canada Home Win ✓ Correct
ELITE PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
Canada Home Win
85%
Predicted score: 2-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
2-0
21.0%
1-0
18.3%
3-0
16.1%
4-0
9.3%
0-0
7.9%
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Canada a clear edge against Qatar in World Cup — 85% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 2-0.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 81% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Canada vs Qatar — Canada Home Win: 85%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.