🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3
Colombia vs Portugal
Jun 27, 11:30 PM · Hard Rock Stadium
○ Normal PREDICTION
Colombia Home Win
45%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Colombia45%
Draw23%
Portugal32%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)62%
Under 2.5 (0-2)38%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes63%
BTTS: No37%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
9.1%
1-0
7.2%
2-0
6.3%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Colombia vs Portugal — Colombia Home Win: 45%. λ (Home): 1.74 · λ (Away): 1.44.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.