goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Congo DR vs Uzbekistan

Jun 27, 11:30 PM · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Normal PREDICTION

Congo DR Home Win

38%

Predicted score: 1-0

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Congo DR38%
Draw35%
Uzbekistan26%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)21%
Under 2.5 (0-2)79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes29%
BTTS: No71%

Most Likely Scores

1-0

18.5%

2-0

8.2%

2-1

5.6%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Congo DR vs UzbekistanCongo DR Home Win: 38%. λ (Home): 0.89 · λ (Away): 0.68.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.