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🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Croatia vs Ghana

Jun 27, 09:00 PM · Lincoln Financial Field

SAFE PREDICTION

Croatia Home Win

70%

Predicted score: 2-0

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Croatia70%
Draw18%
Ghana12%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)60%
Under 2.5 (0-2)40%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes50%
BTTS: No50%

Most Likely Scores

2-0

11.6%

1-0

10.3%

2-1

9.6%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Croatia vs GhanaCroatia Home Win: 70%. λ (Home): 2.27 · λ (Away): 0.83.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.