🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3
Croatia vs Ghana
Jun 27, 09:00 PM · Lincoln Financial Field
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Croatia Home Win
70%
Predicted score: 2-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Croatia70%
Draw18%
Ghana12%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)60%
Under 2.5 (0-2)40%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes50%
BTTS: No50%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
11.6%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Croatia vs Ghana — Croatia Home Win: 70%. λ (Home): 2.27 · λ (Away): 0.83.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.