goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Czech Republic vs Mexico

Jun 25, 01:00 AM · Estadio Azteca

SAFE PREDICTION

Mexico Away Win

58%

Predicted score: 0-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Czech Republic17%
Draw26%
Mexico58%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)38%
Under 2.5 (0-2)62%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes38%
BTTS: No62%

Most Likely Scores

0-1

16.9%

0-2

12.8%

1-2

8.7%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Czech Republic vs MexicoMexico Away Win: 58%. λ (Home): 0.68 · λ (Away): 1.52.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.