🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2
Ecuador vs Curaçao
Jun 21, 12:00 AM · Arrowhead Stadium
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Ecuador Home Win
84%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Ecuador84%
Draw15%
Curaçao1%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)32%
Under 2.5 (0-2)68%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes4%
BTTS: No96%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
26.6%
2-0
25.7%
3-0
16.6%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Ecuador vs Curaçao — Ecuador Home Win: 84%. λ (Home): 1.93 · λ (Away): 0.05.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.