🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3
Ecuador vs Germany
Jun 25, 08:00 PM · MetLife Stadium
○ Normal PREDICTION
Ecuador Home Win
42%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Ecuador42%
Draw28%
Germany30%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)40%
Under 2.5 (0-2)60%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes46%
BTTS: No54%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.8%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
8.2%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Ecuador vs Germany — Ecuador Home Win: 42%. λ (Home): 1.28 · λ (Away): 1.02.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.