World Cup · Round of 32
England vs Congo DR
Jul 01, 04:00 PM · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
ELITE PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
England Home Win
78%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
1-0
21.9%
2-0
20.8%
3-0
13.2%
0-0
11.5%
4-0
6.3%
Knockout scenario
This is a knockout tie: a draw after 90 minutes goes to 30 minutes of extra time, and if still level, a penalty shootout.
About 18% chance the match is level after 90 minutes and goes to extra time.
If it goes to extra time (30 min):
If it goes to penalties:
Based on the squad's recent penalty conversion; a shootout still comes down largely to chance.
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives England a clear edge against Congo DR in World Cup — 78% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 1-0.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 80% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
England vs Congo DR — England Home Win: 78%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.