🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1
England vs Croatia
Jun 17, 08:00 PM
○ Normal PREDICTION
England Home Win
51%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
England51%
Draw22%
Croatia27%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)63%
Under 2.5 (0-2)37%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes63%
BTTS: No37%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.3%
2-0
7.0%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
England vs Croatia — England Home Win: 51%. λ (Home): 1.92 · λ (Away): 1.35.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.