goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1

France vs Senegal

Jun 16, 07:00 PM · MetLife Stadium

SAFE PREDICTION

France Home Win

63%

Predicted score: 2-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

France63%
Draw18%
Senegal19%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)72%
Under 2.5 (0-2)28%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes66%
BTTS: No34%

Most Likely Scores

2-1

9.2%

3-1

7.5%

2-0

7.2%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

France vs SenegalFrance Home Win: 63%. λ (Home): 2.44 · λ (Away): 1.29.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.