goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Iran vs New Zealand

Jun 16, 01:00 AM · SoFi Stadium

Normal PREDICTION

Iran Home Win

51%

Predicted score: 1-0

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Iran51%
Draw25%
New Zealand24%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)50%
Under 2.5 (0-2)50%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes52%
BTTS: No48%

Most Likely Scores

1-0

11.4%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

9.2%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Iran vs New ZealandIran Home Win: 51%. λ (Home): 1.62 · λ (Away): 1.04.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.