goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

Jun 14, 11:00 PM · Lincoln Financial Field

Normal PREDICTION

Ecuador Away Win

42%

Predicted score: 0-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Ivory Coast23%
Draw35%
Ecuador42%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)20%
Under 2.5 (0-2)80%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes28%
BTTS: No72%

Most Likely Scores

0-1

20.0%

0-2

9.4%

1-2

5.7%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Ivory Coast vs EcuadorEcuador Away Win: 42%. λ (Home): 0.61 · λ (Away): 0.94.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.