🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador
Jun 14, 11:00 PM · Lincoln Financial Field
○ Normal PREDICTION
Ecuador Away Win
42%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Ivory Coast23%
Draw35%
Ecuador42%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)20%
Under 2.5 (0-2)80%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes28%
BTTS: No72%
Most Likely Scores
0-1
20.0%
0-2
9.4%
1-2
5.7%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador — Ecuador Away Win: 42%. λ (Home): 0.61 · λ (Away): 0.94.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.