🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3
Japan vs Sweden
Jun 25, 11:00 PM
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Japan Home Win
69%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Japan69%
Draw16%
Sweden15%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)77%
Under 2.5 (0-2)23%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes67%
BTTS: No33%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.6%
3-1
8.0%
2-0
6.8%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Japan vs Sweden — Japan Home Win: 69%. λ (Home): 2.79 · λ (Away): 1.26.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.