goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Japan vs Sweden

Jun 25, 11:00 PM

SAFE PREDICTION

Japan Home Win

69%

Predicted score: 2-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Japan69%
Draw16%
Sweden15%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)77%
Under 2.5 (0-2)23%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes67%
BTTS: No33%

Most Likely Scores

2-1

8.6%

3-1

8.0%

2-0

6.8%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Japan vs SwedenJapan Home Win: 69%. λ (Home): 2.79 · λ (Away): 1.26.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.