🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1
Mexico vs South Africa
Jun 11, 07:00 PM · Estadio Azteca
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Mexico Home Win
68%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Mexico68%
Draw22%
South Africa10%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)41%
Under 2.5 (0-2)59%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes34%
BTTS: No66%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
17.7%
2-0
15.8%
3-0
9.4%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Mexico vs South Africa — Mexico Home Win: 68%. λ (Home): 1.79 · λ (Away): 0.53.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.