🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2
Mexico vs South Korea
Jun 19, 01:00 AM · Estadio Akron
○ Normal PREDICTION
Mexico Home Win
47%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Mexico47%
Draw30%
South Korea23%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)32%
Under 2.5 (0-2)68%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes38%
BTTS: No62%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
16.7%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
7.9%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Mexico vs South Korea — Mexico Home Win: 47%. λ (Home): 1.23 · λ (Away): 0.77.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.