🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1
Netherlands vs Japan
Jun 14, 08:00 PM
○ Normal PREDICTION
Netherlands Home Win
40%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Netherlands40%
Draw22%
Japan38%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)70%
Under 2.5 (0-2)30%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes70%
BTTS: No30%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.1%
1-0
5.0%
3-1
4.9%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Netherlands vs Japan — Netherlands Home Win: 40%. λ (Home): 1.83 · λ (Away): 1.76.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.