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🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Netherlands vs Sweden

Jun 20, 05:00 PM · NRG Stadium

🔥 ELITE PREDICTION

Netherlands Home Win

70%

Predicted score: 3-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Netherlands70%
Draw15%
Sweden15%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)83%
Under 2.5 (0-2)17%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes73%
BTTS: No27%

Most Likely Scores

3-1

7.7%

2-1

7.5%

4-1

5.9%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Netherlands vs SwedenNetherlands Home Win: 70%. λ (Home): 3.07 · λ (Away): 1.43.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.