🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2
Netherlands vs Sweden
Jun 20, 05:00 PM · NRG Stadium
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Netherlands Home Win
70%
Predicted score: 3-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Netherlands70%
Draw15%
Sweden15%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)83%
Under 2.5 (0-2)17%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes73%
BTTS: No27%
Most Likely Scores
3-1
7.7%
2-1
7.5%
4-1
5.9%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Netherlands vs Sweden — Netherlands Home Win: 70%. λ (Home): 3.07 · λ (Away): 1.43.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.