goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3

New Zealand vs Belgium

Jun 27, 03:00 AM · BC Place

Normal PREDICTION

New Zealand Home Win

40%

Predicted score: 2-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

New Zealand40%
Draw21%
Belgium39%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)74%
Under 2.5 (0-2)26%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes73%
BTTS: No27%

Most Likely Scores

2-1

7.7%

3-1

4.9%

3-2

4.7%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

New Zealand vs BelgiumNew Zealand Home Win: 40%. λ (Home): 1.92 · λ (Away): 1.91.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.