🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3
New Zealand vs Belgium
Jun 27, 03:00 AM · BC Place
○ Normal PREDICTION
New Zealand Home Win
40%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
New Zealand40%
Draw21%
Belgium39%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)74%
Under 2.5 (0-2)26%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes73%
BTTS: No27%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
7.7%
3-1
4.9%
3-2
4.7%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
New Zealand vs Belgium — New Zealand Home Win: 40%. λ (Home): 1.92 · λ (Away): 1.91.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.