goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Panama vs Croatia

Jun 23, 11:00 PM · BMO Field

Normal PREDICTION

Croatia Away Win

46%

Predicted score: 1-2

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Panama30%
Draw24%
Croatia46%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)56%
Under 2.5 (0-2)44%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes59%
BTTS: No41%

Most Likely Scores

1-2

9.3%

0-1

8.7%

0-2

7.2%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Panama vs CroatiaCroatia Away Win: 46%. λ (Home): 1.29 · λ (Away): 1.66.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.