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🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Paraguay vs Australia

Jun 26, 02:00 AM

Normal PREDICTION

Paraguay Home Win

50%

Predicted score: 1-0

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Paraguay50%
Draw31%
Australia19%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)26%
Under 2.5 (0-2)74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes31%
BTTS: No69%

Most Likely Scores

1-0

19.9%

2-0

11.6%

2-1

7.0%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Paraguay vs AustraliaParaguay Home Win: 50%. λ (Home): 1.17 · λ (Away): 0.60.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.