World Cup · Round of 32
Portugal vs Croatia
Jul 02, 11:00 PM · BMO Field
Drama Profile
How both teams have handled pressure across the season.
Historical pattern, informational only.
SOLID PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
Portugal Home Win
58%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.0%
3-1
6.9%
2-2
6.6%
1-1
6.1%
3-2
5.7%
Knockout scenario
This is a knockout tie: a draw after 90 minutes goes to 30 minutes of extra time, and if still level, a penalty shootout.
About 18% chance the match is level after 90 minutes and goes to extra time.
If it goes to extra time (30 min):
If it goes to penalties:
Based on the squad's recent penalty conversion; a shootout still comes down largely to chance.
Pre-match Outlook
Portugal enter this World Cup fixture with a measured advantage over Croatia (58% confidence, SOLID tier) and a projected 2-1 result.
Both teams are projected to score (75% BTTS yes), suggesting an open contest where neither defense fully shuts down the opponent.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Portugal vs Croatia — Portugal Home Win: 58%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.