World Cup · Round of 16
Portugal vs Spain
Jul 06, 07:00 PM
Drama Profile
How both teams have handled pressure across the season.
Historical pattern, informational only.
Normal PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
Portugal Home Win
46%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.4%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
7.0%
3-1
5.7%
Knockout scenario
This is a knockout tie: a draw after 90 minutes goes to 30 minutes of extra time, and if still level, a penalty shootout.
About 21% chance the match is level after 90 minutes and goes to extra time.
If it goes to extra time (30 min):
If it goes to penalties:
Based on the squad's recent penalty conversion; a shootout still comes down largely to chance.
Pre-match Outlook
Portugal enter this World Cup fixture with a measured advantage over Spain (46% confidence, Normal tier) and a projected 2-1 result.
In this World Cup context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the moderate-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Portugal vs Spain — Portugal Home Win: 46%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.