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🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Portugal vs Uzbekistan

Jun 23, 05:00 PM · NRG Stadium

🔥 ELITE PREDICTION

Portugal Home Win

79%

Predicted score: 2-0

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Portugal79%
Draw14%
Uzbekistan8%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)68%
Under 2.5 (0-2)32%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes50%
BTTS: No50%

Most Likely Scores

2-0

11.2%

3-0

10.2%

2-1

8.6%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Portugal vs UzbekistanPortugal Home Win: 79%. λ (Home): 2.74 · λ (Away): 0.77.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.