🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2
Portugal vs Uzbekistan
Jun 23, 05:00 PM · NRG Stadium
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Portugal Home Win
79%
Predicted score: 2-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Portugal79%
Draw14%
Uzbekistan8%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)68%
Under 2.5 (0-2)32%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes50%
BTTS: No50%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
11.2%
3-0
10.2%
2-1
8.6%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan — Portugal Home Win: 79%. λ (Home): 2.74 · λ (Away): 0.77.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.