🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3
Senegal vs Iraq
Jun 26, 07:00 PM · BMO Field
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Senegal Home Win
68%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Senegal68%
Draw23%
Iraq10%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)37%
Under 2.5 (0-2)63%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes30%
BTTS: No70%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
19.6%
2-0
16.6%
3-0
9.4%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Senegal vs Iraq — Senegal Home Win: 68%. λ (Home): 1.69 · λ (Away): 0.46.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.