🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2
Spain vs Saudi Arabia
Jun 21, 04:00 PM · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Spain Home Win
91%
Predicted score: 3-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Spain91%
Draw7%
Saudi Arabia2%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)65%
Under 2.5 (0-2)35%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes23%
BTTS: No77%
Most Likely Scores
3-0
16.9%
2-0
16.6%
4-0
12.9%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Spain vs Saudi Arabia — Spain Home Win: 91%. λ (Home): 3.06 · λ (Away): 0.28.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.