🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1
Sweden vs Tunisia
Jun 15, 02:00 AM · Estadio BBVA
○ Normal PREDICTION
Sweden Home Win
48%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Sweden48%
Draw23%
Tunisia29%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)61%
Under 2.5 (0-2)39%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes62%
BTTS: No38%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.0%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Sweden vs Tunisia — Sweden Home Win: 48%. λ (Home): 1.79 · λ (Away): 1.35.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.