goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Tunisia vs Japan

Jun 21, 04:00 AM · Estadio BBVA

🔥 ELITE PREDICTION

Japan Away Win

71%

Predicted score: 0-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Tunisia8%
Draw21%
Japan71%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)37%
Under 2.5 (0-2)63%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes28%
BTTS: No72%

Most Likely Scores

0-1

19.9%

0-2

17.7%

0-3

10.4%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Tunisia vs JapanJapan Away Win: 71%. λ (Home): 0.41 · λ (Away): 1.77.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.