🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2
Tunisia vs Japan
Jun 21, 04:00 AM · Estadio BBVA
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Japan Away Win
71%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Tunisia8%
Draw21%
Japan71%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)37%
Under 2.5 (0-2)63%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes28%
BTTS: No72%
Most Likely Scores
0-1
19.9%
0-2
17.7%
0-3
10.4%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Tunisia vs Japan — Japan Away Win: 71%. λ (Home): 0.41 · λ (Away): 1.77.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.