🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3
Tunisia vs Netherlands
Jun 25, 11:00 PM · Arrowhead Stadium
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Netherlands Away Win
59%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Tunisia19%
Draw23%
Netherlands59%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)52%
Under 2.5 (0-2)48%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes50%
BTTS: No50%
Most Likely Scores
0-1
11.8%
0-2
10.8%
1-2
9.8%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Tunisia vs Netherlands — Netherlands Away Win: 59%. λ (Home): 0.92 · λ (Away): 1.83.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.