🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3
Türkiye vs USA
Jun 26, 02:00 AM · SoFi Stadium
○ Normal PREDICTION
Türkiye Home Win
47%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Türkiye47%
Draw24%
USA29%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)56%
Under 2.5 (0-2)44%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes58%
BTTS: No42%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
7.4%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Türkiye vs USA — Türkiye Home Win: 47%. λ (Home): 1.68 · λ (Away): 1.26.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.