goalence

🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Türkiye vs USA

Jun 26, 02:00 AM · SoFi Stadium

Normal PREDICTION

Türkiye Home Win

47%

Predicted score: 2-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Türkiye47%
Draw24%
USA29%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)56%
Under 2.5 (0-2)44%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes58%
BTTS: No42%

Most Likely Scores

2-1

9.4%

1-0

8.9%

2-0

7.4%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Türkiye vs USATürkiye Home Win: 47%. λ (Home): 1.68 · λ (Away): 1.26.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.