🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands
Jun 21, 10:00 PM · Hard Rock Stadium
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Uruguay Home Win
82%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Uruguay82%
Draw17%
Cape Verde Islands1%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)28%
Under 2.5 (0-2)72%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes4%
BTTS: No96%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
28.2%
2-0
25.5%
3-0
15.3%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands — Uruguay Home Win: 82%. λ (Home): 1.80 · λ (Away): 0.05.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.