🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 3
Uruguay vs Spain
Jun 27, 12:00 AM · Estadio Akron
○ Normal PREDICTION
Spain Away Win
48%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Uruguay24%
Draw28%
Spain48%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)39%
Under 2.5 (0-2)61%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes44%
BTTS: No56%
Most Likely Scores
0-1
14.3%
0-2
9.8%
1-2
8.7%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Uruguay vs Spain — Spain Away Win: 48%. λ (Home): 0.89 · λ (Away): 1.37.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.