🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 2
USA vs Australia
Jun 19, 07:00 PM · Lumen Field
○ Normal PREDICTION
USA Home Win
44%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
USA44%
Draw24%
Australia32%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)56%
Under 2.5 (0-2)44%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes59%
BTTS: No41%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
6.8%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
USA vs Australia — USA Home Win: 44%. λ (Home): 1.60 · λ (Away): 1.34.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.