🌍 World Cup · Group Stage - 1
USA vs Paraguay
Jun 13, 01:00 AM · SoFi Stadium
○ Normal PREDICTION
USA Home Win
41%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
USA41%
Draw25%
Paraguay34%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)53%
Under 2.5 (0-2)47%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes57%
BTTS: No43%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
9.0%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
6.7%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
USA vs Paraguay — USA Home Win: 41%. λ (Home): 1.48 · λ (Away): 1.31.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.