World Cup
USA vs Paraguay
Jun 13, 01:00 AM
Full Time
4 – 1
USA vs Paraguay
Our prediction: USA Home Win ✓ Correct
Normal PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
USA Home Win
44%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.9%
1-0
9.0%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
7.8%
Pre-match Outlook
USA hold a slim edge over Paraguay in this World Cup match — 44% confidence puts it in the Normal tier with a 1-0 projection.
In this World Cup context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the narrow-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
USA vs Paraguay — USA Home Win: 44%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.