2026世界杯
2026世界杯 — Goalence 预测
我们的 Pi-Ratings 模型把整届赛事模拟了数亿次。下面是每支球队的赛前概率，以及每一轮过后概率如何变化。
夺冠
右侧各列随赛事推进逐步填入：每轮比赛结束后，我们以真实结果重新运行模型并公布新的夺冠概率。被淘汰的球队保持为0%。
赛前=开赛前 · 第1/2/3轮=小组赛第1/2/3轮后 · 32强/16强=对应淘汰赛后 · 1/4、半=四分之一/半决赛后。
| # | 球队 | 赛前 | 第1轮 | 第2轮 | 第3轮 | 32强 | 16强 | 1/4 | 半 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸西班牙 | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 19.9% | 27.4% | 54.0% |
| 2 | 🇦🇷阿根廷 | 11.4% | 14.5% | 16.5% | 18.2% | 18.8% | 24.4% | 33.8% | 46.0% |
| 3 | 🇫🇷法国out | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 0% |
| 4 | 🇧🇷巴西out | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 🏴英格兰out | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 0% |
| 6 | 🇵🇹葡萄牙out | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 7 | 🇨🇴哥伦比亚out | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | 🇩🇪德国out | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | 🇳🇱荷兰out | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | 🇧🇪比利时out | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | 🇯🇵日本out | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | 🇲🇦摩洛哥out | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | 🇨🇭瑞士out | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | 🇭🇷克罗地亚out | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | 🇲🇽墨西哥out | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | 🇳🇴挪威out | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 5.4% | 0% | 0% |
| 17 | 🇺🇾乌拉圭out | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 18 | 🇸🇳塞内加尔out | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 19 | 🇪🇨厄瓜多尔out | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 20 | 🇦🇹奥地利out | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 21 | 🇮🇷伊朗out | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 22 | 🇺🇸美国out | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 23 | 🇦🇺澳大利亚out | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 24 | 🇹🇷土耳其out | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 25 | 🇩🇿阿尔及利亚out | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 26 | 🇰🇷韩国out | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 27 | 🇨🇦加拿大out | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 28 | 🇸🇪瑞典out | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 29 | 🇪🇬埃及out | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 30 | 🇵🇾巴拉圭out | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 31 | 🏴苏格兰out | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 32 | 🇨🇿捷克out | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 33 | 🇨🇮科特迪瓦out | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 34 | 🇹🇳突尼斯out | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 35 | 🇬🇭加纳out | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 36 | 🇿🇦南非out | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 37 | 🇸🇦沙特阿拉伯out | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 38 | 🇧🇦波黑out | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 39 | 🇳🇿新西兰out | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 40 | 🇵🇦巴拿马out | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 41 | 🇺🇿乌兹别克斯坦out | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 42 | 🇨🇩刚果民主共和国out | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 43 | 🇨🇻佛得角out | 0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 44 | 🇯🇴约旦out | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 45 | 🇮🇶伊拉克out | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 46 | 🇨🇼库拉索out | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 47 | 🇶🇦卡塔尔out | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 48 | 🇭🇹海地out | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
最可能的对阵图
我们模型的单一最可能路径——从小组赛到决赛，含每场比分。其中一半对阵是五五开。
纯模型——仅我们自己的概率，不混合任何外部数据。前瞻追踪：数据在每轮前记录。