FIFA World Cup 2026
2026世界杯 — Goalence 预测
我们的 Pi-Ratings 模型把整届赛事模拟了数亿次。下面是每支球队的赛前概率，以及每一轮过后概率如何变化。
Goalence Pi-Ratings (FIFA-anchored) · Monte Carlo, pure model · 更新: 2026-06-04
夺冠
右侧各列随赛事推进逐步填入：每轮比赛结束后，我们以真实结果重新运行模型并公布新的夺冠概率。被淘汰的球队保持为0%。
赛前=开赛前 · 第1/2/3轮=小组赛第1/2/3轮后 · 32强/16强=对应淘汰赛后 · 1/4、半=四分之一/半决赛后。
| # | 球队 | 赛前 | 第1轮 | 第2轮 | 第3轮 | 32强 | 16强 | 1/4 | 半 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇦🇷Argentina | 11.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 🇪🇸Spain | 9.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 🇫🇷France | 8.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | 🇧🇷Brazil | 6.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | 🏴England | 6.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | 🇵🇹Portugal | 6.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | 🇨🇴Colombia | 5.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | 🇩🇪Germany | 4.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | 🇳🇱Netherlands | 4.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | 🇧🇪Belgium | 4.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | 🇯🇵Japan | 3.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | 🇲🇦Morocco | 3.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | 3.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | 🇭🇷Croatia | 2.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | 🇲🇽Mexico | 2.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | 🇳🇴Norway | 2.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 17 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | 2.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 18 | 🇸🇳Senegal | 1.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 19 | 🇪🇨Ecuador | 1.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 20 | 🇦🇹Austria | 1.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21 | 🇮🇷Iran | 1.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 22 | 🇺🇸USA | 1.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 23 | 🇦🇺Australia | 0.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 24 | 🇹🇷Türkiye | 0.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 25 | 🇩🇿Algeria | 0.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 26 | 🇰🇷South Korea | 0.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 27 | 🇨🇦Canada | 0.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28 | 🇸🇪Sweden | 0.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 29 | 🇪🇬Egypt | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 30 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 31 | 🏴Scotland | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 32 | 🇨🇿Czech Republic | 0.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 33 | 🇨🇮Ivory Coast | 0.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 34 | 🇹🇳Tunisia | 0.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35 | 🇬🇭Ghana | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 36 | 🇿🇦South Africa | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 37 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 38 | 🇧🇦Bosnia & Herzegovina | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 39 | 🇳🇿New Zealand | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 40 | 🇵🇦Panama | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 41 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistan | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42 | 🇨🇩Congo DR | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 43 | 🇨🇻Cape Verde | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 44 | 🇯🇴Jordan | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 45 | 🇮🇶Iraq | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 46 | 🇨🇼Curaçao | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 47 | 🇶🇦Qatar | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 48 | 🇭🇹Haiti | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
最可能的对阵图
我们模型的单一最可能路径——从小组赛到决赛，含每场比分。其中一半对阵是五五开。
纯模型——仅我们自己的概率，不混合任何外部数据。前瞻追踪：数据在每轮前记录。
模型如何运作 →